Power Push: DOE Eyes 121.3 GW Capacity By 2040
- August 14, 2026
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The Philippines will need to add about 89 gigawatts (GW) of power capacity over the next 14 years to meet projected electricity demand and maintain grid reliability, according to the Department of Energy (DOE).
Installed capacity is expected to rise from 32.2 GW in 2026 to 121.3 GW by 2040 under the agency’s conservative scenario, representing a 277-percent increase. Energy Secretary Sharon Garin said the expansion would require substantial investment across several generation technologies, while stressing that new capacity alone would not guarantee a reliable power system.
“The country will need substantial new capacity to meet growing demand and maintain reliable power supply,” Garin said.
The DOE’s projection includes more than 24 GW of new ground-mounted solar capacity, 20 GW of new gas-fired generation and nearly 10 GW of new onshore wind by 2040.
The government is also targeting a renewable energy share of 35 percent by 2030 and 50 percent by 2040. Garin said meeting those goals while keeping the grid reliable would require a diversified mix of renewable energy, flexible generation, energy storage, reserves and transmission infrastructure.
Projects In The Pipeline
Garin said the amount of additional capacity required could fall significantly if power projects that have already been committed and awarded are completed on schedule.
If these projects, including offshore wind and waste-to-energy facilities, come online as planned, the requirement for new gas capacity would decline to about 13 GW, while the need for new ground-mounted solar would drop to around 14 GW by 2040.
“That tells us something important: delivering projects on time is itself critical to long-term reliability,” Garin said.
The DOE also factored in the possible addition of 1.4 GW of nuclear capacity by 2038. Garin said nuclear power could provide firm capacity and help diversify the country’s energy mix, but would not eliminate the need for other generation technologies.
Even with nuclear capacity, the system would still require about 13 GW of new gas and 15 GW of ground-mounted solar, along with additional wind, storage and transmission infrastructure, she said.
Grid Reliability Concerns
Garin said the country’s energy planning must go beyond simply adding megawatts and should also consider whether the grid can absorb and reliably use new generation capacity.
The DOE’s emphasis on plant performance comes amid recent grid alerts and concerns over prolonged and unscheduled outages affecting the power system.
“Installed capacity on paper is not enough. We need to look at actual performance — whether plants are delivering the capacity and reliability expected of them and meeting their obligations to the power system,” Garin said.
She directed the DOE Electric Power Industry Management Bureau to review the engineering and design standards applied to power plants to determine whether existing requirements remain adequate for technologies currently operating in the country.
Tighter Oversight
The Power Bureau and Renewable Energy Management Bureau were also ordered to audit the performance of power plants under their respective jurisdictions.
The reviews will examine whether generation facilities are delivering the capacity and reliability expected of them and complying with their obligations to the power system.
The DOE Legal Services was separately instructed to conduct a comprehensive review of conditions attached to certificates of endorsement, certificates of confirmation of commerciality, service contracts and other government-issued instruments.
According to Garin, the agency will assess whether these conditions need to be strengthened and whether accountability provisions are sufficiently clear to protect consumers and system reliability.
The DOE also plans to develop stronger measures against generation companies that fail to meet their obligations, including reviewing available penalties, imposing tougher sanctions for serious or repeated violations, and establishing clear grounds and procedures for blacklisting when warranted.
“Government approvals come with responsibilities,” Garin said, stressing that companies granted permission to participate in the energy sector are expected to meet their commitments and comply with regulatory requirements.
As the country moves toward a significantly larger power system by 2040, the power industry must build enough generation to keep pace with demand while ensuring that existing and new facilities can reliably deliver electricity when needed.
Source:
https://business.inquirer.net/605201/doe-chief-targets-121-3-gw-of-power-capacity-by-2040
