No surprises in update on energy trends

BMI Research, which is part of the Fitch family of companies (but is not the ratings service, as they take pains to point out every time they publish something), has created an interesting series of assessments of various key sectors they call “megatrends,” and last week they presented the installment on energy. While the information shared in the hour-long webinar was interesting and useful, none of it was surprising or unexpected. That, in a sense, is probably good news for the Philippines’ efforts to improve its energy system, provided policymakers here correctly read the signs.

The thing that makes BMI’s megatrends most relevant is that the research is largely survey-based. The trends and forecasts are distilled from what businesses and investors in the corresponding space — the power sector this time, but at other times in logistics, tourism, technology, financial services and so on — perceive as risks and opportunities, and areas of concern. These are the people who actually make things happen, so their perceptions become self-fulfilling prophecies. Put another way, their message to policymakers and markets is, “This is what we think is important, and this is the direction we think things are headed; therefore, this is where we are going to direct our efforts and resources, and if you don’t see things the same way, that’s your problem.”