If Not Coal, Is Nuclear the Baseload Power We Need?
- June 23, 2026
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A recent international survey found that nearly eight in 10 Filipino business leaders are considering relocating operations overseas if government efforts to support electrification fail to improve. The findings highlight mounting concerns over rising energy risks, supply uncertainties, and vulnerability to fluctuations in global markets.
Concerns over the Philippines’ reliance on fossil fuels have intensified as tensions in the Middle East continue to threaten global energy markets. According to the report, executives view clean electrification as a means of reducing these risks while strengthening the country’s economic resilience and sustainability agenda.
As part of the Philippine Energy Plan, renewables are set to take a larger role in the country’s energy mix, rising from 25% today to 35% by 2030 and 50% by 2040.
(Also read: Gov’t Opens New Chapter For Key Hydro And Coal Assets)
Baseload Power Is Necessary
Despite the growth of renewable energy (RE), the Department of Energy (DOE) maintains that firm and reliable baseload power remains critical to grid stability. Baseload plants operate continuously to meet round-the-clock electricity demand, with coal, natural gas, geothermal, hydroelectric, and nuclear facilities among the most common examples.
For instance, in the Visayas, where solar energy already contributes significantly, DOE Undersecretary Mario Marasigan noted that this resource remains unreliable, available only during daytime. This becomes critical during periods of tight supply, when the grid issues yellow alerts to signal thin operating reserves, and escalates to red alerts when supply becomes insufficient to meet demand.
Marasigan pointed out that these conditions often occur at night, when solar generation drops off while electricity demand remains high or increases. “Ang nagdidikta ng capacity natin sa Visayas ay ‘yung malalaki nating planta na conventional, ‘yung mga coal facilities. ‘Yun po talaga ang inaasahan natin,” he explained. (The capacity in the Visayas is largely determined by our big conventional plants, especially coal facilities. These are what we really rely on.)
While the agency is implementing short-term measures in the region, including diesel generation and battery energy storage systems, Marasigan stressed that long-term solutions include large power plants such as the 150-MW Therma Visayas facility in Toledo. He also said Panay, which is outside the coal moratorium, remains a potential site for new generation, adding that attracting natural gas investments is important to ensure a more flexible and reliable power supply.
Elsewhere, countries are increasingly relying on coal to strengthen their energy supply amid the oil crisis. Japan and South Korea have eased restrictions on aging coal-fired plants previously set for decommissioning. Bangladesh is importing more coal from Indonesia and South Africa, as well as additional coal-generated electricity from India. Meanwhile, Australian coal prices, the world’s top export commodity, have climbed 25% since the end of February.
Nuclear as the New Baseload?
However, as the Philippines aligns with the global shift away from coal, a key question arises: what will serve as baseload power as more RE is added to the grid? While demand is rising from AI and data centers and the growing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), other pressures remain, including population growth, increasing use of cooling as temperatures rise, and sustained industrial activity, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
As a result, many energy experts and institutions point to nuclear power as a key option for meeting rising demand with reliable, low-carbon electricity. Its main technical advantage lies in its ability to provide continuous 24/7 baseload power, unlike intermittent sources such as wind and solar, which require large-scale storage or backup systems to maintain a steady supply.
Southeast Asian governments are also reassessing nuclear energy as a means to secure reliable, low-carbon electricity. Countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam have either revived or accelerated nuclear energy plans, driven by surging electricity needs and heightened awareness of supply vulnerabilities.
With its never-operational Bataan Nuclear Power Plant dating back to the 1970s, the Philippines is once again moving toward nuclear energy. The government established a new atomic energy regulatory authority in 2025 to oversee future development and approved a roadmap aimed at attracting investors and preparing for possible nuclear integration by 2032.
Marasigan revealed that the government is considering several potential sites for new nuclear facilities, including Palawan and Masbate, as well as the possible revival of the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant.
“Maraming interested to put up nuclear facilities,” he said (“Many are interested in putting up nuclear facilities”), adding that international partners, including agencies from the United States, South Korea, Japan, and Russia, are helping the Philippines access nuclear technology.
The undersecretary also expressed optimism over small modular reactors (SMRs), nuclear units typically generating below 300 megawatts (MW). These are potentially suitable for an archipelagic country like the Philippines, where grid capacity is uneven. SMRs also offer smaller-scale deployment, modular construction possibilities, and the prospect of shorter build times compared with traditional large nuclear plants.
(Also read: ERC Advances Grid Reforms To Strengthen Energy Security And Renewable Growth)
Nuclear Power Risks
But nuclear energy also carries significant risks, particularly in a country like the Philippines, which lies along the Pacific Ring of Fire and is highly vulnerable to earthquakes. Marasigan pointed to the Fukushima disaster in Japan as a key reference point for safety considerations. “We consider this like what happened to Japan (Fukushima),” he said. “Pwedeng mangyari rito.” (“It can happen here.”)
He emphasized that these risks underscore the role of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards and the need to comply with its 19 infrastructure requirements before any nuclear power plant can be developed in the country.
But the risks are not limited to safety but also extend to financing, according to energy policy researcher Dianne Araral. She noted that nuclear projects typically involve long construction timelines, where interest accrued during construction can add hundreds of millions of dollars if delays occur. Schedule overruns have a much greater financial impact in nuclear projects than in gas or RE developments, given their high upfront capital costs and the delayed start of revenue generation.
“SMRs may be smaller than traditional reactors, but their economic risks are not proportionally smaller — especially for a first-time nuclear country,” she wrote.
Additionally, SMR designs are still in early stages of commercial deployment. While a few have cleared regulatory milestones in advanced economies, many have yet to do so, and none has a long-term operating track record without significant public support. Consequently, investors face layered uncertainties, including construction timelines, licensing approvals, fuel supply, waste management, supply chains, and eventual decommissioning.
“The Philippines operates with limited fiscal space,” warned Araral. “Debt servicing already absorbs a significant share of the national budget, while competing priorities — transport, health, education, disaster resilience, and climate adaptation — remain pressing. Any nuclear program that relies on poorly structured guarantees or implicit bailouts risks becoming a long-term fiscal burden.”
Energy Security First, Transition Second
The Philippines’ push toward RE reflects a necessary and ambitious transition toward a cleaner power system. However, the present energy landscape demands a more immediate and pragmatic lens. The central question is not only how to decarbonize, but whether the transition can proceed without compromising energy security, economic growth, and poverty alleviation.
Other countries offer a cautionary reminder that long-term climate targets, while politically attractive, are often reshaped by real-world constraints. Australia, which once committed to net-zero emissions by 2050, has seen key political parties move to abandon or weaken the pledge due to concerns over affordability, competitiveness, and its relatively small share of global emissions.
Meanwhile, the United Kingdom has kept its net-zero target but slowed key measures, including delays in vehicle and heating phaseouts, amid concerns over household costs and economic pressure. In both cases, climate ambition has been tempered by the immediate need to maintain affordable and reliable energy.
For the Philippines, the lesson is clear: the energy transition cannot be detached from present-day realities. While nuclear energy may offer long-term potential as a low-carbon baseload source, it remains capital-intensive and fraught with technical, financial, and safety risks. Conventional power plants will continue to play a critical stabilizing role in the interim, ensuring that electricity demand is met as renewable capacity expands.
Ultimately, RE and nuclear power may define the future, but it cannot yet fully carry the present. As The Economist puts it: “Cheap, clean renewable energy will eventually prevail as countries seek to protect their energy mix from conflict. Until then, coal is likely to continue shining brighter.”
Sources:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRLbl0yJ7L4
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/03/31/coal-is-back-in-fashion
https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/advantages-and-challenges-nuclear-powered-data-centers
https://bworldonline.com/opinion/2026/01/23/725895/the-economics-of-nuclear-power
https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/australia/2023-12-11/targets
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-02/nationals-formally-abandon-net-zero-by-2050/105962162
