Why Renewable Energy Alone Can’t Ensure Energy Security and Affordability
- June 18, 2026
Table of Contents
The Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities (ICSC) has flagged what it describes as a “fundamental gap in the Philippine power system”: insufficient flexible generation to keep up with shifting demand and supply conditions.
The group pointed to recurring grid alerts in May 2026 across Luzon and the Visayas, where yellow and red warnings were repeatedly issued as operating reserves tightened. In several instances, these conditions led to rotational brownouts as grid operators worked to maintain system stability.
At the same time, electricity prices in the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) surged sharply, peaking at around ₱32 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) during high-demand periods. The price spikes underscored how quickly costs escalate when supply becomes constrained.
Recent data indicate that grid alerts and WESM price spikes most often occur from late afternoon to late evening, typically between 4:00 PM and 10:00 PM, and sometimes extending past midnight, when demand remains high and available supply tightens. These recurring patterns highlight periods of system stress, with thin reserves and limited flexibility to respond to sudden changes in demand or unexpected outages.
“The trouble begins between 3 and 4 PM when solar generation begins to taper,” explained Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) Chairperson Francis Saturnino Juan, adding that evening demand rises as solar output drops after sunset. He added that the May 13 to 14 red alerts, lasting from mid-afternoon to midnight, were driven by “a flexibility shortage in the hours after the sun goes down.”
(Also read: DOE Sues Leviste, Solar Philippines Firms Over Undelivered 120-MW Mindanao Solar Project)
What is System Flexibility?
In the power sector, flexibility refers to the system’s ability to quickly adjust electricity supply and demand in response to grid or market conditions, ensuring reliable service and preventing blackouts.
As intermittent wind and solar make up a larger share of generation, flexibility becomes increasingly important because it helps smooth out their variable output and shifting demand patterns. It acts as a buffer for the grid, reducing stress, avoiding overloads, and supporting stable power flows while helping keep prices more stable for consumers.
The range of flexibility tools includes hydropower, which can provide both short-term and seasonal balancing. Reservoir and pumped-storage hydro, particularly in regions like the Nordics and the Alps, help smooth daily demand swings while also storing energy for longer periods when needed.
Energy storage is increasingly central to system flexibility. Battery systems can respond almost instantly by storing excess electricity during low-demand periods and releasing it during peak hours. Pumped hydro performs a similar function at a much larger scale, acting as long-duration storage for the grid.
Also, some nuclear plants, particularly in France, are capable of adjusting output to help match demand changes. Flexible gas-fired plants continue to play a key role as well, quickly ramping up during demand spikes or supply shortages.
Interconnectors further strengthen flexibility by linking separate electricity grids, allowing power to flow between regions when supply and demand are uneven.
Alongside these supply-side solutions, demand response and electric vehicles are emerging as additional flexibility resources.
However, maintaining these capabilities through ancillary services, such as frequency regulation, reserve power, and voltage control, can be costly. While essential for integrating more RE and managing supply swings, these investments add system costs that the Philippines must carefully balance against the need to keep electricity affordable for Filipino households.
In fact, transmission charges climbed significantly over the past year, reflecting the growing cost of keeping the grid stable and reliable. The charge increased from ₱0.79 per kWh in May 2025 to ₱1.41 per kWh in May 2026, largely due to higher spending by the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) on ancillary services needed to support grid operations.
As for energy storage, the country needs to rapidly expand its battery energy storage system (BESS) capacity, with estimates indicating that at least 2,000 megawatts (MW) of standalone BESS may be required to help prevent grid congestion as more solar projects come online.
Why the RE Transition Is Not Simple
Even advanced economies are struggling to accommodate the rapid growth of RE.
For instance, Norway and Sweden are expected to see elevated wholesale electricity prices due to a combination of low hydropower reservoir levels and nuclear outages.
After a cold winter with high consumption and limited snowfall, reservoir filling in Norway remains below normal, particularly in the south, keeping hydro availability constrained even as snowmelt begins.
In Sweden, the situation is compounded by the largest hydrological deficit since 2021, alongside reduced nuclear output from ongoing reactor outages.
Meanwhile, France is experiencing a power surplus because electricity demand is weaker than expected, while nuclear and renewable output continue to rise. Slower economic growth and a gradual rollout of electrification have kept consumption low, even after the 2022 energy crisis, when high prices forced factories to cut back on power use. While oversupply can temporarily push prices down, it often increases system costs that are ultimately reflected in consumer electricity bills.
In the case of Germany, it generates 59% of its electricity from renewables, yet household power prices remain among the highest in Europe. Even with a strong renewable share, consumers still pay significant grid fees, taxes, and generation costs, which together keep electricity prices elevated. The experience shows that a high share of renewables does not automatically translate into lower electricity bills, as system balancing and infrastructure costs remain substantial.
Additionally, Spain is often cited as a cautionary example in the RE transition, where rapid growth in solar and wind has raised concerns about grid stability and system resilience. In April 2025, a major blackout affected Spain and Portugal after voltage fluctuations destabilized the network, with the situation worsening as some plants disconnected and failed to support the grid during the disturbance.
Experts note that systems with high shares of renewables can struggle with a loss of “inertia,” a stabilizing force traditionally provided by conventional spinning generators. According to the Baker Institute for Public Policy, this can weaken frequency control and reduce the grid’s ability to absorb sudden shocks. In Spain’s case, high solar output combined with limited conventional backup left the system with a thinner safety margin, contributing to a cascading failure when conditions suddenly shifted.
(Also read: Residents Fight Back Against Pakil Hydropower Project Over Forest & Livelihood Threats)
A Pragmatic Path Forward for the Energy Transition
The experience of advanced economies underscores a central reality of the energy transition: adding more RE alone is not enough to guarantee stability, affordability, or reliability. From recurring grid stress and price spikes in the Philippines to supply imbalances in Europe, the common challenge is not just generation capacity but the system’s ability to balance variability in real time.
A pragmatic transition therefore, requires a balanced energy mix where renewables are scaled up alongside flexible generation, stronger transmission networks, and adequate storage. Crucially, baseload and legacy fuels such as coal and natural gas still play an important backbone role in many power systems today, providing steady output and backup support when variable renewable sources fluctuate.
Even government officials recognize that the shift to cleaner energy must be managed carefully.
“I think when we talk about transition, it’s not cheap. It’s expensive because it involves new and innovative technologies like battery energy storage,” stated DOE Undersecretary Mylene Capongcol.
Juan added, “Aggressively pursuing renewable energy supports sustainability but may increase costs if not carefully managed.”
Ultimately, the energy transition is less about replacing one source with another and more about building a system that works as a whole. Without this balance, the shift to cleaner energy risks becoming more costly and less secure for consumers.
Sources:
https://icsc.ngo/grid-alerts-high-wesm-prices-signal-need-for-power-system-flexibility/
ERC Chairman Francis Saturnino Juan, speech at the Economic Journalists Association of the Philippines (EJAP) Energy Forum 2026, Manila, Philippines, May 26, 2026.
https://www.eurelectric.org/in-detail/what-is-flexibility-in-the-power-sector
https://business.inquirer.net/518183/2000-mw-of-storage-system-needed-for-booming-solar-market
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_Germany
https://www.ft.com/content/b155d922-288a-4bb8-b207-a9f49bb645c7?syn-25a6b1a6=1
