Super El Niño Threatens Power Supply As Demand Climbs In 2027

The Department of Energy (DOE) expects the Philippines’ peak electricity demand to rise by 10.7% in 2027 as the looming super El Niño threatens to intensify summer heat and reduce output from hydropower facilities, putting pressure on the country’s power system.

Peak demand could reach 22,231 megawatts (MW) next year, up from the 20,088 MW recorded in May 2026, according to DOE projections. The agency expects consumption to climb as households and businesses increase their use of air conditioning during hotter months, with demand potentially beginning to surge as early as March and peaking in May.

Despite the anticipated increase, Energy Undersecretary Mario Marasigan said the government expects sufficient electricity supply, provided new power projects are completed on schedule and authorities manage potential supply constraints.

“We don’t see shortages,” Marasigan told reporters on the sidelines of the Philippine International Nuclear Energy Forum.

The DOE has been conducting energy simulations to assess grid reliability under extreme weather conditions as the government prepares for the expected dry spell and the threat of a stronger El Niño.

Luzon is projected to account for the largest share of electricity demand, with peak consumption reaching 15,928 MW in 2027. The Visayas is expected to require about 3,000 MW, while Mindanao’s demand could reach approximately 3,209 MW.

National peak demand reached 20,088 MW in May this year, compared with 19,212 MW in the same month in 2025, reflecting the growing pressure on the power system during periods of extreme heat.

New Capacity To Support Demand

To meet the projected increase, the DOE expects 2,711 MW of power projects to be completed this year, while another 4,758 MW in committed projects could come online in 2027.

The additional capacity is expected to help the country meet higher consumption and offset potential generation losses caused by unfavorable weather conditions. However, delays in commissioning the facilities could leave parts of the grid vulnerable to supply shortfalls, particularly during periods of peak demand.

The DOE is also considering immediate measures to strengthen electricity supply, including the deployment of battery energy storage systems and power barges.

Energy officials have warned that failure to bring new facilities online on schedule could result in more frequent grid alerts, particularly in the Visayas, where supply has remained tight because of forced outages at large coal-fired power plants and dependence on electricity imports from Luzon and Mindanao.

“The challenge that we’re seeing is the Visayas. The effort we’re doing is to focus on what we can do for Visayas to stand on its own,” Marasigan said.

The National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) placed the Visayas grid under yellow and red alerts on Tuesday, signaling that available reserves had fallen below the levels required for normal operations.

The grid was under yellow alert from 3 p.m. to 5 p.m., followed by a red alert from 5 p.m. to 6 p.m. The incident marked the 45th red alert recorded in the region this year.

A yellow alert means operating reserves have become thin, leaving the grid vulnerable to unexpected power plant outages. A red alert indicates that available supply is insufficient to meet demand and required reserves, increasing the risk of rotational brownouts.

The DOE is prioritizing measures that would allow the Visayas to meet more of its own electricity requirements and reduce its dependence on power imports from other regions.

“If the Visayas can meet its own demand, it will no longer need to import power or at least reduce its imports from Luzon and Mindanao,” Marasigan said.

El Niño Threatens Generation

While additional power capacity could help accommodate higher demand, the expected dry spell presents another challenge for the country’s electricity supply.

The DOE estimates that hydropower generation could decline by as much as 60% as reduced rainfall limits water availability at hydroelectric facilities. The agency is also assessing the possible effects of El Niño on solar power plant efficiency and biomass generation.

Biomass facilities rely on agricultural residues and other organic materials as fuel, making their output vulnerable to disruptions in agricultural production.

“If there is no agriculture, there is no produce and then definitely we have no waste,” Marasigan said.

The possible decline in generation comes as the government prepares measures to protect agricultural production and rural livelihoods from drought-related disruptions.

The Department of Agriculture has presented a consolidated ₱61.99-billion action plan to mitigate the effects of El Niño on food production. The package includes ₱6.2 billion already released under the government’s UPLIFT Program, while proposed interventions worth ₱371 million remain unfunded.

Among the unfunded measures are cloud seeding operations and efforts to manage red-striped soft scale insect infestations affecting sugarcane production.

The government has also directed agencies to adopt energy and water-conservation measures as part of its preparations for the climate phenomenon.

Energy Secretary Sharon Garin has warned that consumers could face higher electricity bills as demand rises and El Niño potentially affects power generation facilities.

The combination of stronger electricity consumption, reduced hydropower output and persistent constraints in the Visayas underscores the importance of timely project completion and grid preparedness. While the DOE expects new capacity to support demand growth, delays or prolonged outages could leave the power system exposed during the hottest months of 2027.

Source:

https://mb.com.ph/2026/10/20/doe-projects-surge-in-philippines-power-demand-by-2027-amid-el-nino

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2026/10/21/2564725/peak-power-demand-seen-rising-amid-el-nio

https://business.inquirer.net/616843/higher-electricity-demand-seen-in-2027